WEBVTT

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Well, thank you everyone, for joining us

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today on a market conversation that
we wanted to have with all of you.

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I'm Jeremy Swonger.

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We're joined here today with Byron Braun.

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Byron, thanks for being with us.

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Oh, great, Jeremy.
Glad to be here.

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Jump right into it.

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I want to have a conversation
about the current market.

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So Byron, tell us a little
bit about where we are now.

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Based on where we are and I kind
of call this a transition year.

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If you remember, last year inflation hit

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9.1%, went down to 6.4%. Interest rates
were at zero from the federal funds rate,

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now at 4.75%. The markets were very
choppy going into the end of the year.

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We've had a really nice rally, reflecting
optimism about inflation continuing.

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But the elephant still in the room is

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inflation and that's quick synopsis
of where we are as we speak.

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And tell us more about the
trend for interest rates.

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If you think about interest rates, and I

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kind of like to use analogy,
it's kind of like medicine.

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If you're ill

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and the doctor prescribes you so much
medicine and then you take it for a week

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or two weeks, you feel
a little bit better.

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Sometimes you regress backwards.

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Then you got to take more medicine
or different types of medications.

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So the medicine that the Federal Reserve
is using is rising interest rates.

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And more importantly, it is the perception
of where interest rates are going to go.

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Are they going to go higher, are they

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going to stay the same,
are they going to go down?

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So and so forth.

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But we're in this period now that

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since we have a divided government, the
massive trillion dollar bills that were

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passed in Congress last year probably
aren't going to happen again.

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So think about it.

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Last year Congress was stimulating

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inflation where the Federal Reserve
was trying to fight inflation.

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And even during that push pull, they still
got inflation down to 6.4%, which, if you

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think about it, was pretty
good accomplishment.

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I would agree.

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So as far as
looking at things, what do we think the

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outlook is going forward
with the inflation?

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If I had to bet, I would say we're going

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to have a sticking point right now because
right now wages are still relatively

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strong because the unemployment
rate is relatively low.

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So my guess would be maybe
move sideways a little bit.

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And then once all of the things that the

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Federal Reserve is doing gets through the
system, plus the world has had an

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amazingly warm winter, and that has a
positive impact on

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lowering of natural gas, lowering of
energy, cost heating, so on and so forth.

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So we've been fortunate
to have a mild winter.

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So sticking a little bit, federal Reserve
raise rates maybe one or two more times

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and then a continuation of a
downward movement, probably.

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Okay, can you speak a little bit more on
how inflation affects

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the budget or the aspect for
everyone here on their, I guess,

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discretionary versus
nondiscretionary monies.

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Yes.

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Everybody has a budget and I don't care if
you're rich, poor, middle income, if you

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are a school district, if you are the
government, everybody has budgets.

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So if you just think about budgets in

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these terms, you have X dollars
that comes in every month.

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And what's happening with inflation-
inflation acts like a magnet and it takes

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money away from the discretionary
side of one's budget.

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So your discretionary side are things like

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sporting events, things like going out to
dinner, things that you normally don't do.

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And so if I have a budget of, let's say

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$5,000 a month and inflation is at nine,
that magnet is taking money away from your

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discretionary side into
rent, housing, heating, food.

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Anybody that shops at a grocery store

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knows food is unbelievably expensive
right now, so it sucks it away.

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But it happens in the flip
when inflation starts to drop.

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So if I'm spending a dollar 89 for

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some raspberries and now it's a dollar 59,
believe it or not, that $0.30 has a

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tendency to move over to
the discretionary side.

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So every time you see it drop, the
discretionary side improves because

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everybody has a fixed
budget in their lives.

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So the hope is that it continues to
fall, taking money away from the feeding

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side, all that to the
nondiscretionary side.

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Okay, so any adjustments or portfolio
thoughts for our clients right now?

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With interest rates at approximately 20

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year highs, it's very tempting to
reduce the risk of a portfolio.

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So for example, most corporate bonds in

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the five to seven year
range are around 5%.

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We haven't seen those
rates in over 20 years.

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So that would act as a ballast or a good

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foundation for your portfolio and
reduce the risk at the same time.

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So my tendency is, is to be a little more
guarded, especially if you're in the last

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window of retirement, put a little more
money in bonds, get that 5% floor, reduce

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the risk of the portfolio; a
s a general comment.

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And as far as closing remarks, any
other closing remarks or anything?

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I just want to say to our clients
thank you very much for your continued

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trust and confidence
in this difficult time.

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We're going to try our best
to navigate through here.

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We as your financial advisors are
going to do our best possible.

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We will reach out to you ongoing to

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evaluate where you're at relative
to your risk and your objectives.

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And furthermore, we just want to continue
to share our service model with you here.

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Most of you have experienced this, but we
answer the phone with by the second ring.

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We don't have caller ID here, so
we're not screening anyone's calls.

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We don't have voicemail during business

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hours and we make it a point to
return your call within 24 hours.

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So we're also here of course, Jennifer

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& Stephanie are here for any
support needs that you have here.

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So, along with that, and kind of our
philosophy of just being simple, focused,

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and disciplined, we just want to share
that we're here for you and that we're

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going to continue to service you
in the best way that we know how.

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So.
Thank you, Jeremy.

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And I just want to again, say thank you to
our clients for allowing us to be part of

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your journey, for your financial
goals and aspirations.

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Yes.
Thank you, everyone.